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Books published in Croatia and internationally



SCIENTIFIC PAPERS



Peer reviewed scientific papers



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Peer reviewed professional papers



WORKING PAPERS



Working papers some might be under submission



PHD AND MASTERS



My PHD and masters thesis



books



Macroeconomic Responses to the Covid-19 Pandemic



Edited by: Neven Vidaković, Ivan Lovrinović

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Available in: Hardcover / Kindle, 2021

This book examines economic policies utilized within Southeast Europe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering countries both within and outside the European Union, the human and economic cost of the pandemic is calculated using macroeconomic models from a short and long-term perspective. The economic policies used during the pandemic are analyzed, alongside crisis management approaches, to highlight the effectiveness of the monetary policy, fiscal policies, and potential future economic solutions for the post-COVID-19 period.


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Monetarno-kreditna analiza



Author: Neven Vidaković

Publisher: Effectus visoka škola za financije i pravo; 1st edition

Available in: Paperback, 2016

This book is an in-depth analysis of the monetary and credit policy in Croatia. The book investigates how monetary policy in Croatia has influenced standard economic participants (households, firms, fiscal policy, and banks), however, there is another important aspect of the book and that is credit policy and the way credit policy has influenced economic participants.


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Financialisation and Financial Crisis in South-Eastern European Countries



Author: Group of authors

Publisher: PL Academic Research

Available in: Hardcover, / Kindle 2015

The book discusses various cases of financialization and financial crisis in South-Eastern Europe. While these can be directly traced to the region’s reliance upon the global financial regime, the interplay of international financial institutions, the eurozone’s rigidity, and domestic policies have produced various outcomes in the countries of the region. The study presents quantitative and qualitative research and offers new insights into the processes that shape the financial and monetary systems. The ex-post analysis of how financial instability was created and how it could have been prevented, hopes to provide insights for policy-makers today.


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Poslovanje na burzama: Načela i praksa



Author: Ivo Andrijanić and Neven Vidaković

Publisher: Effectus visoka škola za financije i pravo; 1st edition

Available in: Paperback, 2015

U knjizi se nastojalo što šire i detaljnije opisati poslovanje na efektnim burzama kapitala, duga i na terminskim burzama. Zanimljivo je istaknuti da se neke stvari u svijetu burze i burzovnog poslovanja nisu puno promijenile, na primjer, trgovanje na parketu terminskih burzi nije se promijenilo unazad 150 godina. S druge strane, tehnološki napredak i internet donijeli su revolucionarne promjene u trgovanju na burzama. Omogućen je pristup tržištima investitora iz svih dijelova svijeta tako da danas elektroničko trgovanja polako istiskuje trgovanje na podu. Temeljni cilj pisanja nove knjige o poslovanju na burzama bio je da investiranje treba približiti investitorima, ne prestrašiti ih nerazumljivim sadržajem ili kompliciranim jednadžbama. Moderne financije imaju danas neograničene matematičke mogućnosti i simulacije kroz uporabu računalne tehnologije. Međutim, tehnološka sofisticiranost nema svrhu ako investitor ne zna kako pronaći pravoga brokera za svoje potrebe. U turbulentnim uvjetima poslovanja na svjetskom tržištu potrebno je dobro poznavati osnove investiranja. Zato se ovom knjigom nastoji investitorima i svima onima koji se izravno ili neizravno žele baviti poslovanjem na burzama približiti problematika investiranja, dati im temeljne smjernice o tome kako investirati te ih uputiti u razumijevanje odnosa koji vladaju na tržištu svega onoga što je predmet burzovnog poslovanja. Samo onaj investitor koji je upoznat sa svim mogućnostima koje mu stoje na raspolaganju, može biti uspješan.


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Toward Green Economy: Opportunities And Obstacles For Western Balkan Countries



Author: Group of authors Publisher:

Author Pro Publishing

Available in: Paperback, Hardcover, Kindle – May 22, 2015

The green economy represents important support to economic growth, investments, and competitiveness. Therefore, it is considered to be an important alternative in attaining the general wellbeing of humans, which is seen in the decrease of the risk while preserving the environment and using alternative energy sources. Atmospheric gases, especially carbon dioxide, create the greenhouse effect which influences climate change. They are already generating extreme weather conditions, including powerful hurricanes and floods which have recently affected the Western Balkans. Having this in mind, this book is created with the intention not only to point out to the extent to which the Western Balkan countries have accepted the concept of green growth but also to see what results are achieved in respect of the implementation of this concept with the goal of overcoming the economic and financial crisis and creating the conditions for sustainable growth of this Region.


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Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences



Author: Neven Vidaković

Publisher: LAP LAMBERT, 332 pages

Available in: Paperback – February 2014

This book represents a comprehensive overview of the consequences of what happens to the economy when the central bank chooses the exchange rate. While most research investigates the conduct of monetary policy this book investigates what are the aftereffects of the choice of the monetary policy on a small open economy. The central bank has two main options: stable or variable exchange rate. The book investigates how does the choice of each of the possible exchange rate regime influence the behavior of economic participants: households, firms, banks, fiscal policy. The model is tested versus the data in post-communist transition countries and it is clearly shown the choice of the exchange rate regime presents an important choice for a small open economy. This conclusion broadens the importance of the monetary policy since it is the actual choice of the exchange rate regime that sets the economy on a particular path.


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BANKE I BANKARSKO POSLOVANJE



Author: Neven Vidaković and Miroslav Gregurek

Publisher: Effectus, 600 pages

Available in: Paperback – sixth edition, 2019

Ova monografija sastoji se od tri dijela: poslovanje, poslovni potencijal i organizaciju banke. Svaki dio sadrži dodatak za razumijevanje koji demonstrira čimbenike izvan kontrole banke. U prvom dijelu rasvjetljava se tajnovitost banaka, prikazuje novac kroz funkcije razmjene, obračuni, plaćanja, očuvanja vrijednosti i kreditiranja. Obrađuje se šaltersko poslovanje, bankarske tehnike, neutralne, pasivne i aktivne poslove, te vlastite bankarske poslove. Knjiga također prikazuje i investicijsko bankarstvo, te izdvojeno poslovanje, odnosno eksternalizaciju u izdvojenim trgovačkim društvima, platni promet, tehnike i platne sustave, izračun i kamatne i diskontne stope, te sprečavanje pranja novca. Obrađuju i izračun rate kredita, kreditni registar, realne kamate, institucije kao HANFA i SKDD. Drugi dio knjige prikazuje upravljanje bankarskim poslovanjem. U više poglavlja obrađuju se dobitci iz bankarskog poslovanja, vrste bankarskih rizika i usklađenost strukture bilance, odnosno kapitalne zahtjeve. Obrađeni su kreditni i cjenovni rizici i rizici ročne strukture, operativni rizici, te regulacija tih rizika kroz Baselski sporazum. Dodatci za razumijevanje obrađuju knjigovodstvo banke, monetarnu politiku određenu od strane HNB čija je posljedica monetarni multiplikator i trošak sredstava banke, te matematičke tehnike optimizacije bilance banke. Treći dio knjige je posvećen organizaciji bankarskog poslovanja.


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ZNANSTVENI RADOVI / SCIENTIFIC PAPERS



Monetary policyin Croatia during two recessions



The paper compares the monetary policy in Croatia during two crises: the great recession and the COVIDpandemic. The great recession was a global financial shock that strongly affected Croatia. During the great recession, the central bank was focused on exchange rate stability with little regard for the economy and the effect of the restrictive monetary policy con the real economy. The COVID pandemic was global, but the effects of the crisis are particular depending on the structure of the economy and measures taken to suppress the pandemic. During the COVID crisis, CNBintroduced a new monetary transaction and was able to preserve both liquidities in the economy and exchange rate stability. The paper also proposes further policies to strengthen the quality and inclusiveness of monetary policy in Croatia


Macroeconomic Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Policies from Southeast Europe Palgrave Macmillan, edited by Neven Vidaković and Ivan Lovrinović pages 187-208 ISBN: 978-3-030-75444-0


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Monetarna politika u Hrvatskoj i naslijeđe akademika Ive Perišina



Rad analizira pristup ekonomskoj/monetarnojanalizi koji je u svojim radovimakoristio akademik Ivo Perišin na četiri konkretna primjera ekonomskih varijabliu Hrvatskoj: vanjskom dugu, slučaju „švicarac“, budućem rastu kamatne stope i ulasku Hrvatske u Eurozonu. Svaki primjer je korišten kakobi jasno pokazala različitostpristupa koji postoji u aktualnoj hrvatskoj monetarnoj znanosti i načinu na koji je Ivo Perišin pristupao ekonomskim/monetarnimproblemima. Rad također analizira i trenutno stanje intelektualne ostavštine Ive Perišina i zaključuje da su se u Hrvatskoj uvelike zapustiliradovikojeje u naslijeđe ostavio Ivo Perišin. Naše istraživanje pokazujekako je neoliberalna ekonomika i monetaristička teorija i praksa središnje banke uzrokom neadekvatne monetarne politike Hrvatske narodne banke, što je dovelo do kumuliranja prevelikih makroekonomskih neravnoteža, zbog čega je Hrvatska morala ući u monitoring Europske unije u sklopu Europskog semestra.


Global financial turmoil – 30 years after, Editors Gordan Družić, Ivan Lovrinović, Croatian Academy of Arts and Sciences, pages 51 -78, ISBN: 978-9-53347-307-9


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kOORDINAcIjA MONETARNE I fISkALNE POLITIkE USLjEDEćOj kRIzI



Ekonomska kriza koja je počela 2007. na Wall Streetu ostavila je duboke tragove u eko-nomijama diljem svijeta. Iako se kriza u SAD-u završila nakon 2010., a u Europskoj uniji 2014., osjećaj da je kriza prisutna osjeti se i danas. Ovaj rad analizira moguće scenarije za sljedeću ekonomsku krizu s posebnim fokusom na odnos monetarne i fiskalne politike u EU u slučaju kada su se i monetarna i fiskalna politika odlučile za jasna pravila, a moguć-nosti diskrecije su praktički nepostojeći. U tome kontekstu analizirano je i stanje Hrvatske i koja su moguća ograničenja s kojima će se susresti Hrvatska u sljedećoj krizi.


Libertas international university volume 3, issue (3), ISSN: 2584-5055 UDK: 336.7:336.143(497.5) pages: 41-54


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A CREDIT POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR ENTERPRENEURSHIP



This paper looks at the connection between credit and entrepreneurship. The main focus of the paper is on the recognition that new entrepreneurs need financial help in order to start their ventures. To be able to do that they need to obtain financing. These developed markets is done through the capital markets, but in bank-centric economies where most funding comes from banks, entrepreneurial financing can be challenging. This paper recognizes this constraint and proposes a credit policy framework that would stimulate entrepreneurial financing.


Insights and potential sources of new entrepreneurial growth Radovic Markovic Mirjana; Nikitovic Zorana; Zanadu Linjie Chou editors pages 220 – 231, ISBN 978-88-95922-84-3


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Long Term Effects of Property Tax: Case of Croatia



ABSTRACT Property tax is probably one of the most controversial taxes which were ever announced in Croatia's recent history. There was not a single tax or government measure which has occupied so much media and public discourse with the exception of the introduction of VAT. Most of the discussion regarding the new tax was focused on the actual fiscal impact of the new tax, how it will be calculated and what will be the overall fiscal impact. This paper however takes another approach and tries to determine the overall long-term effects of the new tax in terms of the class separation and sociological impact this tax will have. Particular focus is paid to the possible ghettoization of Croatia cities. The paper creates a model which investigates how the new tax affects the household's long-term consumption plans. If the household cannot adjust its consumption due to the new taxation it is forced to sell its property and move into a lower value neighborhood. Over time this process leads to a large reclassification and regrouping of the households depending on their income. The paper also investigates how the introduction of the new tax will affect the educational system. Our model shows the new tax will have an adverse effect on the educational system and quality of education in Croatia.


Lex localis - Journal of Local Self-Government, Volume 14, issue 3, pages 635 – 651 ISSN: 1581-5374


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KRETANJEKAPITALA U HRVATSKOJ2009.-2015.



Naše istraživanjeanalizira količinu kapitala u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju ekonomske krize 2009.–2015. Svrharada je preko količine kapitala determinirati osnovu zakreiranje makroekonomskih politika. U slučaju nedostatka kapitala u ekonomiji potrebno je dizajnirati ekonomske politike okrenute investicijama,u slučaju viška kapitala u ekonomiji potrebno je dizajnirati ekonomske politike okrenute povećanju agregatne potražnje. Rad jasno utvrđuje da se je u razdoblju krize količina kapitala u Hrvatskoj povećalau apsolutnom i u relativnom smislu. Apsolutno u kunskom iznosu i relativno u odnosu na broj zaposlenih. Sukladno tome zaključak rada jeste da je potrebno primjenjivati ekonomske modele i kreirati makroekonomske politike orijentirane prema povećanju agregatne potražnje u ekonomiji, te na temelju tih modela kreirati makroekonomske politike, posebice fiskalnu i monetarnu politiku. Agregatna potražnja može se povećati na više načina, ali za malu otvorenu ekonomiju kakva je Hrvatske, ključno je povećanje inozemne potražnje.


Ekonomija/Economics, volume 22, issue 1, pages 115 – 137 ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 330.14.01.


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Capital Flows, Credit Crunch and Deleveraging Dynamics: The Case of Slovenia, Croatiaand Hungary in Comparison



This paper investigates the deleveraging process in three neighboring countries: Slovenia, Croatia, and Hungary. Prior to the economic crisis of 2008, all three countries have experienced solid rates of economic growth, economic stability, but also a fast rise in foreign debt. After 2008 all three countries are faced with a prolonged recession and without long-term sustainable sources of growth. This paper looks at the effects of capital flow into three economies, determines the reasons for the increase in foreign debt, and investigates the policy response. Paper finds that each of the three countries had different reasons for the increase in foreign debt, but the economic effects are the same: prolonged macroeconomic instability and recession. In order to cover both economic theory and real economic effects, authors use a modified version of the RBC model with soft budget constraints and free capital flows. The model does to some extent explain the effects leveraging process has had on the three economies. In the end paper investigates what was the role of the central bank in controlling the increase in foreign debt and concludes the role of the central bank has to be augmented for control of capital flows in order to avoid a crisis like the one started in 2008.


Comparison in Financialization and financial crisis - lessons from central and southeastern European economies edited by Dubravko Radošević and Vladimir Cvijanović pages 301 – 319 ISSN 1864-483X ISBN 978-3-631-66116-1


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Bank’s choIce of loan portfolIo under hIgh regulatIon – example of croatIa



This paper creates a mathematical model in which the banks are faced with two optimization problems. The first optimization problem is how to optimize their behavior in order to maximize profits. The second optimization is how to optimize the structure of liabilities in order to have minimum regulation. The regulatory regime is imposed by the central bank. This paper investigates the behavior of banks when faced with high regulation and provides a theoretical framework for analysis of the impact of high regulation on the choice of the bank’s portfolio structure. The model shows the banks have a learning framework in which the banks learn the central bank’s true model and adjust their credit policies to the existing regulatory regime. However, this adjustment also creates changes in the choice of credit.


FIP – Financije i pravo, volumen 2, broj 1, str. 29 – 44 ISSN: 1849-241X


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USPON I PAD KREDITIRANJA STANOVNIŠTVA U HRVATSKOJ



Poslovanje banaka u periodu od 2000. do 2008. godine karakterizirao je značajan rast kreditiranja stanovništva. Unutar same kompozicije kreditiranja stanovništva posebno je značajan rast potrošačkih kredita, koji nisu standardni predmet ekonomskoga istraživanja. Standardna interpretacija kreditiranja podrazumijeva jednakost u kojoj je S=I, štednja jednaka investicijama, alis pojavom potrošačkoga kredita javlja se novi odnos, koji je S=K, odnosno štednja je jednaka kreditu. Ekonomska teorija obično ne istražuje sudionike u ekonomiji koji žive iznad svojih mogućnosti i koji imaju čudne vremenske preference. Osim nedostatka teoretskoga objašnjenja potrošačkoga kredita razdoblje od 2000. do 2008. godine obilježila je i stopa rasta kredita stanovništvu koja je bila iznad rasta nominalnoga BDP-a i rasta plaće, što jasno pokazuje da takav rast kredita nije bilo moguće dugoročno održati. S početkom krize 2009. godine enorman rast kredita stanovništvu zaustavljen je i otada stagnira. Ovim radom pokušat će se dati odgovor na pitanje je li zaustavljanje kreditiranja stanovništva posljedica aktualne krize ili je jednostavno zaduženost građana došla do svoje gornje granice. Glavni zaključak rada jest da bi se kreditni slom dogodio neminovno, bez obzira na krizu. Pojava krize pri tome je samo ubrzala proces.


Libertas Business School papers Ivo Andrijanić ed., volume 5, pages 7-22, ISSN: 1846-728


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RADNA SNAGA I PERSPEKTIVE EKONOMSKOGA OPORAVKA U REPUBLICI HRVATSKOJ



Rad nastoji sagledati stanje tržišna rada u Republici Hrvatskoj i kako tržište rada može sudjelovati u ekonomskom oporavku. Tržište rada je sagledano iz perspektive trenutne zaposlenosti koja je podijeljena na sektor usluga i sektor roba. Ova podjela je upotrijebljena kao početna točka da bi se moglo analizirati prošlo kretanje na tržištu rada, ali i buduća kretanja koja bi mogla biti rezultat budućih mjera monetarne i fiskalne politike. Iz perspektive zaposlenosti rad zaključuje da je zaposlenost u sektoru usluga dosegnula svoj maksimum i da nije realno očekivati povećanje zaposlenosti u tome sektoru. U sektoru proizvodnje roba moguće je povećati zaposlenost, ali očekivati povećanu potražnju za radnom snagom. Čak i da dođe do povećanja potražnje za radnom snagom ponuda radne snage postaje dodatan problem, jer nije adekvatna s obzirom na buduću potražnju za radnom snagom. S obzirom na strukturu ponude radne snage i karakteristike ponude radne snage nije moguće očekivati snažan ekonomski uzlet u Hrvatskoj u srednjem razdoblju.


Ekonomija/Economics, volume 18, issue 2, 279 – 312 ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 331.526 330.34


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GLOBAL BANKING AND THE ROLE OF THE LANDER OF LAST RESORT



The paper analyses the role of the lender of last resort in a global economy. The crisis that started in 2008 has shown that in the global crisis the problem of banks is not only with liquidity but also with the lack of capital. In order to fully understand the bank’s need for capital, it is necessary to understand the process of globalization and the development of modern economic movements. The paper starts with the model of closed economies which resembles the “island model”, in the second stage of the model the globalization is introduced and communication between the islands. The model created by the authors shows how globalization is not only limited to the flow of goods, services, and capital but can also be seen as changes in the variables optimized by the participants in the economy. The model shows how the globalization process has deeply changed economic relationships. Special attention is paid to changes in the monetary economy during the globalization process. Authors conclude that a special global lender of last resort for liquidity is not a guarantor in stability and the last lender as a global source of capital during the crisis is hard to put into practice in a highly globalized world. Considering this, the best path towards global stability is the control of the scope of the monetary process and monetary multipliers which exist in the global world.


Montenegrin Journal of economics issue 1, volume 7, 21-38 ISSN 1800-5845



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UTJECAJ GLOBALNE KRIZE NA MALO I SREDNJE PODUZETNIŠTVO U HRVATSKOJ



Promatra se ponašanje poduzetnika, ali i kreditora u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju krize, te prikazuje slaba usklađenost mjera državne intervencije, kroz moguće rezultate takvih mjera. Članak se bavi aktualnom temom utjecaja sadašnje globalne krize na malo i srednje poduzetništvo u Hrvatskoj. Fiskalna i monetarna politika nisu usklađene. Vlada i HNB moraju osmisliti ekonomske politike koje će omogućiti dugoročan ekonomski rast. Vlada treba radikalno smanjiti potrošnju i investicije koje ne utječu neposredno na ekonomski rast i rashode uskladiti s prihodima. Uravnotežena fiskalna politika neće biti dovoljna. Država se mora osposobiti za ulaganja u kapitalnu opremljenost domaće industrije i aktivno upravljanje tim ulaganjima, kao što to danas čine sve europske vlade. HNB treba u tom poslu pomoći većom ponudom novca. Prvi način na koji se fiskalna politika može uključiti u ekonomiju je da počne sa poreznim rasterećenima malih i srednjih poduzeća.


Libertas Business School papers, Ivo Andrijanić ed. volume 2, pages 1-16 ISSN: 1846-728 UDK:338.124.4: 65.017.2/.3(497.5)



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USKLAĐENOST MONETARNE I FISKALNE POLITIKE U RH



Rad nastoji povezati utjecaj monetarne i fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj i pokazati koji im je međusobni odnos. Hrvatska od stabilizacijskoga programa 1994 godine nije imala klasične oscilacije poslovnih ciklusa, pa provođenje monetarne i fiskalne politike nikad nije bilo izloženo pritisku koji sobom nosi recesija. Zbog recesije u 2009 godini, o provođenju monetarne i fiskalne politike se počelo intenzivnije govoriti, jer se nametnulo pitanje da li će ekonomske politike reagirati anti-ciklički kao što je to uobičajeno. Pokazalo se je da su i monetarna i fiskalna politika reagirale izrazito pro-ciklički, produbljujući krizu. Rad pokazuje zašto je takva reakcija hrvatske ekonomije očekivana i normalna. Fiskalna politika se temelji na očuvanju vlasti, a monetarna na stabilnosti tečaja. U radu su razvijena dva modela. Model fiskalne politike s fokusom na očuvanje vlasti i model monetarne politike s fokusom na očuvanje stabilnosti tečaja. Model monetarne politike u radu ukazuje na konstrukcijsku grešku u monetarnoj politici, koja je orijentirana isključivo na domaće tržište deviza, a ne na domaće tržište novca. Rad razvija model fiskalne politike, koja je prije svega prije svega orijentirana na dobivanje izbora, a ne nužno na dugoročnu optimalnu fiskalnu politiku.


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UZROCI NASTANKA INFLACIJE U HRVATSKOJ: ULOGA POSREDNIKA



Inflacija se obino doživljava kao makroekonomski problem u ekonomiji. Ovaj rad pokušava mikroekonomskim alatima analizirati tržište potrošnje. Rad analizira ulogu posrednika koji potrošaima omogu!uju pristup robi široke potrošnje. Osobita pažnja poklanja se analizi posrednika i dilemi predstavljaju li oni sami za sebe monopol, oligopol ili slobodno tržište. Rad nalazi da veliki dio tržišta roba koje konzumiraju potrošai ustvari ima monopolnu ili oligopolnu strukturu. Zbog toga proces nastajanja cijena s kojima se susre!u potrošai nije prikladno analizirati preko makroekonomskih varijabli, nego preko mikroekonomske strukture ekonomije. Rad tako"er istražuje ulogu države u procesu nastajanja cijena i naine kako država svojom pregovarakom mo!i može utjecati na kreiranje cijena.


Ekonomija/Economics volume 15, issue 2, pages 263-280; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 336.748.12


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EKONOMSKA POLITIKA, MEKA BUDŽETSKA OGRANIýENJA I NASTANAK VANJSKOGA DUGA U RH



Pitanje vanjskoga duga veü je duže vrijeme jedna od glavnih ekonomskih tema u Republici Hrvatskoj. Ovaj rad nastoji objasniti nastanak vanjskoga duga iz perspektive ekonomskih participanata. Autor kreira dinamiþki model ponašanja kuüanstava, poduzeüa i države nastojeüi objasniti njihovo ponašanje i odnos prema dugu. U modelu se takoÿer pridaje i velika važnost oþekivanjima ekonomskih participanta i ekonomskoj politici koja se provodi. Autor zakljuþuje da meko budžetsko ograniþenje ekonomskih participanata i ekonomska politika koja se bazira na pogrešnim oþekivanjima, ukoliko ne postoje adekvatne ekonomske politike, može dovesti do velike potrošnje, što uz slobodni protok kapitala uzrokuje vanjski dug.


Ekonomija/Economics, volume 14, issue 2, pages 495-518; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 336.27330.534.4


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THE IMPACT OF THE CHOICE OF MONETARY POLICY ON HOUSEHOLDS



This paper looks at the impact a choice of monetary policy regime in a small open economy has on households. The choice of monetary policy in a small open economy analyzed in this paper is the choice between the fixed and variable exchange rates. The paper creates a dynamic model conditioned on the real exchange rate. At the end paper looks at the data for the confirmation of theoretical assumptions. The data used is from Slovenia and Croatia which have experienced both fixed and floating monetary regimes in the last 15 years.


Montenegrin journal of economics volume 3, issue 6, pages 109-120; ISSN 1800-5845


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EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY: CROATIA VS. SLOVENIA



This paper tries to explain the empirical causation between exports and the real exchange rate. The paper develops a simple model based on the relationship of exports to real interest rate differential, foreign demand for domestic goods, and real exchange rate. The paper then tests the model with empirical data from Croatia and Slovenia. The empirical analysis in the paper finds that there is a very limited relationship between real interest rate differentials, foreign demand, and exports. However, there is a strong relationship between exports and the real exchange rate. When empirically tested, the model confirms that the monetary policy of sliding exchange rate in Slovenia was vastly superior to the monetary policy of fixed exchange rate in Croatia.


Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy, volume 1-2, pages 55-65; ISSN 0547-3101 UDK 336.74 338.26 497.5497.4


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EKONOMSKA POLITIKA I OPTIMALNA KONTROLA – KRITIKA



Rad opisuje proces modeliranja ekonomskih procesa upotrebljavajući optimalnu kontrolu kao matematičko i racionalna očekivanja kao teoretsko oruđe pri objašnjavanju ekonomskih procesa. Rad se fokusira na sam proces modeliranja i probleme s kojom se ekonomist susreće kada kreće u modeliranje ekonomskih procesa. Posebna pozornost se pridaje specifikaciji parametara kod modela.


Ekonomija/Economics volume 13, issue 1, pages 265-287; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 330.4 338.22


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teorija racionalnih očekivanja i mikroekonomija zaduženja



Ovaj rad istražuje odnos i interakciju između kućanstava i financijskih institucija. Rad postavlja rekurzivan model koji se bazira na teoriji racionalnih očekivanja i ekvilibriskih modela. Model razvija ponašanje kućanstava kroz vrijeme, zatim se razvija ponašanje financijskih institucija kroz vrijeme. Model dalje postavlja intertemporalnu interakciju između kućanstava i financijskih institucija. Matematičke metode koje se upotrebljavaju u modelu su rekurzivne metode koje se baziraju na matematici optimalne kontrole i racionalnih očekivanja. Pozornost se pridaje kreiranju očekivanja i kako se očekivanja razlikuju između kućanstava koja posjeduju nesavršenu informaciju i financijskih institucija koje posjeduju savršenu informaciju. Centralna tema rada je razvoj dugovanja kroz vrijeme i kako proces dugovanja utječe na racionalne agente koji nastoje planirati svoje ekonomsko ponašanje kroz vrijeme.


Ekonomija/Economics volume 12, issue 4, pages 705-729; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 229.565 336.274


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MODEL EKONOMIJE BEZ BANKARSKOGA SUSTAVA



Svrha ovoga rada je stvoriti ekonomski model male otvorene ekonomije koja je okrenuta potrošnji. Ekonomija koju model stvara bavi se proizvodnjom i ima slobodan i neograničen protok kapitala. Model predstavlja malu otvorenu ekonomiju tako da se potrošnja ne mora financirati domaćom proizvodnjom nego se može i financirati stranim zaduženjem. Jedna od pretpostavki modela je da ekonomija nema svojih financijskih istitucije nego kada se kućanstva žele zadužitit moraju tražiti financiranje van svoje države. Model je okrenuti mikroekonomskim temeljima, ali su posljedice makroekonomske. Postavke modela su mikroekonomske tako da je makroekonomski dio modela samo zbroj svojih mikroekonomskih dijelova. Model intenzivno matematički definira strukturu ekonomije, čimbenike ekonomije i kako se ekonomija kreće kroz vrijeme. Posebna pozornost je posvećena analizi odnosa stranoga duga i bruto domaćega proizvoda.


Ekonomija/Economics volume 12, issue 3 pages 551-569; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 330.16



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TEORIJA RACIONALNIH OČEKIVANJA I IZVOZ



Ovaj rad nastoji napraviti kvantitativan model koji će moći poslužiti kao model s kojim se može upotrebljavati pri donošenju ekonomskih odluka. Centralna tema je izvoz i politika tečaja. Teoretska podloga rada se bazira na dinamičnome programiranju. Svjesni smo da odnosi u ekonomiji i stvarnome svijetu nisu linearni autor pokušava napraviti model koji je rekurzivan i u svojoj prirodi dinamičan. Posebna pozornost se pridaje šokovima s kojima se susreće ekonomija. Šokovi su podijeljeni u na nominalne (monetarne) i realne šokove. Baza modela je mikroekonomska, tako da percepcija šoka ovisi o individualnoj funkciji očekivanja. Analizirajući šokove posebna pozornost se pridaje teoriji neutralnosti koju je postavio Robert Lucas. Nakon što je postavljen model, rad istražuje implikacije modela. posebna pozornost za vrijeme analize modela se pridaje politici tečaja i načinu na koji se politika tečaja u modelu odražava na stanje u ekonomiji. Ovaj rad je predviđen kao prvi u nizu radova koji će se baviti problemom izvoza kao na teoretskome planu, tako i na empirijskome.


Ekonomija/Economics volume 12, issue 1, pages 153-173; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 339.565


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APPLICATION OF THEMUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL ON A SMALLOPEN ECONOMY



The object of this paper is to investigate the applicability of a Mundell-Fleming model. The model was developed in the 1960s with the main intention of opening the standard closed economy Keynesian IS-LM model and adjusting the variables for the capital flows and other shocks that might result from the capital flow. The paper develops the models in detail, contrasts the closed economy and open economy IS-LM model. The paper also extends the model for the application to the standard rational expectations theory. After developing the model, I apply the model to a small open economy. In this case, I chose Croatia. The small open economy in the middle of Europe. The country was chosen because it is currently undergoing the transition from a socialistic planned economy to an open capitalistic economy and it is very susceptible to capital flows. The model fits the data very well and proves on the data that monetary and fiscal policy if used separately will have no effect on the economy because of the capital flows.


Ekonomija/Economics, volume11, issue 3, pages 392-424; ISSN 1330-0636 UDK 330.5 330.834


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stručni radovi / professional papers



Perils of debt forgiveness and helicopter money



This paper analyses the proposal by the Italian government that the ECB should consider canceling the Pandemic debt and argues against it. Italian debt forgiveness is similar to the original proposal for the helicopter money as it was proposed by Milton Friedman (1969). Friedman wrote that money should be “dropped from/out of a helicopter” the implication of such behavior is that the central bank gives money for nothing. The paper argues such behavior is dangerous and could cause long-term instability. The paper also analyses the theoretical perspective of banks' reluctance to increase credit in the low-interest-rate environment. Combining the two perspectives on monetary policy the paper argues the post-COVID-19 economic policy should be government debt decrease and gradual increase of interest rates to stimulate lending and investing.


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Rules vs. discretion: Case of monetary policy in Croatia



The paper reviews the effects of monetary policy in Croatia over the period of time from 2000 until 2018. The time period is divided into three parts. The first period from 2000 to2007 is the period of the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances (the boom phase of the financial cycle); the second period is from 2008 to2015 is the period of crisis and self-adjusting period through deflationary adjustment (the bust phase of the cycle); the third period is from 2016 onward (low inflation phase). The paper highlights the relationship between rules-based monetary policy and the real economy. The rules-based monetary policy (the exchange rate serves as a nominal anchor for disinflation) has forced monetary policy to pursue a policy of internal devaluation. After the crisis, the economy has self-adjusted but at a considerable cost in unemployment and GDP. The analysis provides a clear blueprint for the behavior of monetary policy during the next financial crisis.


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Did the banks in Croatia have extra interest income from CHF appreciation?



Recent appreciation of the Swiss franc has caused up-roar in Croatia and other Eastern European coun-tries. Ever since the Swiss central bank has removed parity with the euro, sud-den appreciation of the franc has caused retail annuities tied to the franc to increase significantly. Once again the issue of the legality and morality of loans denominated in the Swiss franc has been brought back to the me-dia spotlight. In Croatia in particular there has been prevalent the argu-ment that the banks have heavily profited from the appreciation of the franc. Croatian central bank has responded to these allegations with the press realize clearly stating that the open currency posi-tion of the banks has been around 0, ever since CHF loans started in Croatia, therefore it was impossible for the banks to profit from the CHF appreciation. This paper investigates did the banks have extra income interest income because of the appreciation of the franc even with the open currency position of 0. The answer is yes; however, overall profitability of CHF loans as a banking product is doubtful at best.


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Monetary Policy versus Structural Reforms: The Case of Croatia



Over the course of the recession during the last six years, central bank officials in Croatia have on numerous occasions stated there is a strong need for structural reforms in Croatiaandthat there is no need for monetary policy reforms. This short paper investigates why the CNB is only demanding fiscal reforms (i.e. internal devaluation) and is not offering any monetary reforms (conventional or unconventional monetary policy responses). Over the course of the last 15 years, CNB has caused several structural changes that lead to financial instability. This paper reviews three main structural changes initiated by the monetary policy of the central bank, i.e. structural changes of credit policy of the banking system, development in the external indebtedness, and central bank independence. The modern monetary theories and new central bank strategies imposed new views on central bank policy measures. We suggest several financial sectors and central banking reforms in Croatia, including the accession of Croatia to SSM, the first pillar of the EU banking union.


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Pricing of retail deposits in Croatia: including the premium for country default



The pricing of interest rates on retail deposits in Croatia does not follow standard term structure or quantity premium for pricing deposits. Banks often pay no premium on time or on quantity of deposits. On one hand this is not surprising since the banking sector has been very liquid for last several years and the banks see deposits as a cost, but what is interesting is that the banks do not price in forward looking expectation regarding the state of economy or country rating. This paper uses a simple Black – Sholes model and incorporates forward looking expectations regarding the state of the economy into the existing deposit pricing structure for largest banks in Croatia.


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New CNB measures to stimulate credit growth: problems and solutions



The paper analyses the new measure implemented by the Croatian national bank. The measure is a decrease in the reserve requirement, but the actual release of funds is contingent on an increase in lending to firms. This new measure is significant because for the first time in Croatia there is a measure whose purpose is to have an effect in particular on specifically the credit policy of the banks. Although this new measure has good intentions it does not solve the problem of why the highly liquid banking system in Croatia is not willing to increase lending. The reason for the lack of credit growth lies in two separate problems. The first problem is the willingness of banks to be exposed to more credit risk and the second problem is the way monetary policy is conducted in Croatia.


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radovi u nastajanju / working papERS



EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND A HOUSEHOLD’S CHOICE OF DEBT



The present paper looks at the impact of exchange rate regime and a household’s choice of debt. One of the characteristics of economic transition in eastern European countries has been an increase in overall debt holding. Standard economic theory assumes the relationship S=I. According to this relationship, households should use debt only to purchase durable goods; however, in some eastern European countries, there has been a large increase in consumer loans, economic behavior not recognized under the standard no-Ponzi scheme assumption of economic models. This paper aims to investigate the case when debt is used to live above a household’s standard budget constraint. Our model shows that the significant impact on the choice of the amount the debt households are willing to hold is due to the choice of the exchange rate regime made by the central bank. The model investigates a household’s behavior in two main cases: a stable exchange rate regime (exchange rate regime with FX risk) and a variable exchange rate regime (exchange rate regime without exchange rate risk). Households make different choices under alternative exchange rate regimes; this pattern of behavior is presented in the model and verified by the data.


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Quantity of money in Croatia – a transactional approach



This paper proposes a new calculation of monetary aggregate M4 and quantity of money in Croatia. The existing methodology used by the central bank uses foreign currency as part of monetary aggregate M4 this methodology inflates the quantity of money. This paper takes out the foreign currency out of the calculation of monetary aggregates and provides and different quantity of monetary approach to be used. The definition is based on quantity of money used for transactions the so called transactional aprroach. As additional point of research the paper investigates the velocity of money using new aggregate with special focus on great recession and post-recession period.


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PHD AND MASTERS THESIS



PHd thesis



The thesis covers the impact of the choice of monetary policy in a small open economy. Most papers regarding monetary policy analyze the impact of the conduct of monetary policy. These papers look at the choice between stable and variable exchange rate regimes. The main hypothesis of the thesis is that the actual choice of monetary policy between stable and variable exchange rate regimes has a major impact on the behavior of economic participants. The thesis has two main models: stable exchange rate model and variable exchange rate model. The behavior of households, firms, government, banks is investigated under each model and the main differences are determined. The model is tested on data for 10 countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Litva, Latvia, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia. The model shows the choice of the exchange rate regime has a significant impact on monetary variables like household’s debt and foreign debt but has minor or no impact on real variables like industrial production.


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masters thesis: THEORY OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND THE CHOICE OF THE MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY



This is my masters thesis. It investigates the monetary policy in Croatia and Slovenia. The objective was to determine whether the choice of monetary policy has any impact on the behavior of economic participants. The thesis concludes there is a significant difference in the structure of data between Slovenia and Croatia. Some of these differences can be attributed to the choice of monetary policy. Also if we look at the data we see Slovenian data is “better” in terms of what are the goals of fiscal and monetary policy.


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