NEVEN VIDAKOVIĆ

ACADEMIC PAPERS

So here it is. The list of the papers I have published so far. I have to say that looking back on them I am very proud. I have to say some of the papers were written by a very young and enthusiast man. Today they might have been written a little different (more structure and more technologically advanced) but I am still very proud of them. Some of the papers might have been published, but I consider them works in progress because in my mind there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Capital Flows, Credit Crunch and Deleveraging Dynamics: The Case of Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary in Comparison

This paper investigates the deleveraging process in three neighboring countries: Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary. Prior to the economic crisis of 2008 all three countries have experienced solid rates of economic growth, economic stability, but also fast rise of foreign debt. After 2008 all three countries are faced with a prolonged recession and without long term sustainable sources of growth. This paper looks at the effects of capital flow into three economies, determines the reasons for the increase in foreign debt and investigates the policy response. Paper finds that each of the three countries had different reason for the increase in foreign debt, but the economic effects are the same: prolonged macroeconomic instability and recession.

Kretanje kapitala U Hrvatskoj 2009. - 2015. - Opcije za izbor novog ekonomskog modela Hrvatske

Naše istraživanje analizira količinu kapitala u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju ekonomske krize 2009. – 2015. Svrha rada je kroz količinu kapitala determinirati osnovu za kreiranje makroekonomskih politika. U slučaju nedostatka kapitala u ekonomiji potrebno je dizajnirati ekonomske politike okrenute investicijama, u slučaju viška kapitala u ekonomiji potrebno je dizajnirati ekonomske politike okrenute povećanju agregatne potražnje. Rad jasno utvrđuje da se u razdoblju krize količina kapitala u Hrvatskoj povećala u apsolutnom i relativnom smislu. Apsolutno u kunskom iznosu i relativno u odnosu na broj zaposlenih. Sukladno tome dolazi se do zaključka kako je potrebno primjenjivati ekonomske modele i kreirati makroekonomske politike orijentirane prema povećanju agregatne potražnje u ekonomiji te na temelju tih modela kreirati makroekonomske politike, posebice fiskalnu i monetarnu politiku. Agregatna potražnja može se povećati na više načina, ali za malu otvorenu ekonomiju kakva je Hrvatske, ključno je povećanje inozemne potražnje.


Transition Towards Renewable Energy Supply in Croatia

This paper analyses the current state of the renewable energy in Croatia and proposes what can be done to speed up the process of transition towards the increase in consumption of renewable energy in Croatia. The process of transition is analyzed from the perspective of three main participas who are relevant to the process: academic researches, government as policy makers and investors. The paper fin that the academic research has done a significant progress toward renewable energies and has thoroughly researched many opportunities for renewable energies, but lack of government policies has hindere investors and new projects. Because of this there is a need for fast and focused policies and paper proposes several of those policies which could be implemented in a short time span to make the Croatian transition towards renewable energy faster.

Long-term Effects of Property Tax: the Case of Croatia

Property tax is probably one of the most controversial taxes announced in Croatia’s recent history. There has not been a tax or government measure that has occupied so much media and public discourse with the exception of the introduction of VAT. Most of the discussion regarding the new tax was focused on the actual fiscal impact of the new tax, how it would be calculated, and what the overall fiscal impact would be. This paper, however, takes another approach and tries to determine the overall long-term effects of the new tax in terms of class separation and sociological impact. Particular focus is paid to the possible ghettoisation of Croatia cities. The paper creates a model which investigates how the new tax affects households’ long-term consumption plans. If households cannot adjust their consumption due to the new taxation, they will be forced to sell their property and move into lower-value neighbourhoods. Over time, this process leads to large reclassification and regrouping of households depending on their income. The paper also investigates how the introduction of the new tax will affect the education system. Our model shows the new tax will have an adverse effect on the education system and quality of education in Croatia.


Transition Game: Who Played The Transition Game And With What Results

This paper looks at the transition process from communist planned economy to free market economy for eleven countries in Europe and treats the whole process as a game. The process is interesting due to the fact all new countries have same goal, join EU and join EU monetary union, join NATO and thus successfully end transition.
The paper perceives this process as a Bayesian game, creating a stochastic dynamic settings where policy makers analyse the policies and have the ability to change learn from their mistakes. The game is solved both analytically and theoretically. The paper does not create a computer generated estimations of the game, but looks at the real life experiment that has occurred in last 15 years in post-communist counties, an index to quantify the results of the game is created to see what were the results of each player. The main findings of the paper are that there is a considerable difference in the strategies which were chosen by each of the participants and with considerable difference in the results. What is most striking in the paper is that the game players do not have the ability to learn or to create forward expectations. Also there is little correlation between the success in the game and economic success indicating high political influence.

nase gospodarstvo

 

Source: Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy

Download Empirical analysis of monetary policy...

Empirical analysis of monetary policy: Croatia vs. Slovenia

This paper tries to explain empirical causation between the exports and the real exchange rate. The paper develops a simple model, the model is based on the relationship of exports to: real interest rates differential, foreign demand for domestic goods and real exchange rate. The paper then tests the model with the empirical data from Croatia and Slovenia. The empirical analysis in the paper finds: there is very limited relationship between real interest rates differentials, foreign demand and exports. However there is a strong relationship between exports and the real exchange rate. When empirically tested the model confirms the monetary policy of sliding exchange rate in Slovenia was vastly superior to the monetary policy of fixed exchange rate in Croatia


Montenegrin

 

Source: Montenegrin Journal of Economics

Download The impact of the choice...

The impact of the choice of monetary policy on households

This paper looks at the impact a choice of monetary policy regime in a small open economy has on households. The choice of monetary policy in a small open economy analyzed in this paper is the choice between the fixed and variable exchange rate. The paper creates a dynamic model conditioned on the real exchange rate. In the end paper looks the data for the confirmation of theoretical assumptions. The data used is from Slovenia and Croatia which have experience both fixed and floating monetary regimes in last 15 years.

libertas

 

Source: Libertas Business School Papers

Joint with Miroslav Gregurek

Download The paradox of...

The Paradox of kuna savings

It has long been a fact Croatians save in foreign currency instead of domestic currency. This paper investigates why Croatians when faced with a stabile economy and stable currency still have major prejudice towards their own currency. The aversion towards local currency goes so far households are willing to accept negative real rates of return when saving in foreign currency. What is the reasons and rational behind this choice? The authors develop a dynamic model of household’s behavior and the use a Bayesian framework in order to create an objective and subjective probability distribution for making economic decisions. The empirical results also show there might be a threshold of attention where the households would move from savings in foreign currency to savings in local currency if the returns in local currency were high enough.


libertas

 

Source: Libertas Business School Papers

Joint with Miroslav Gregurek

Download Small and Medium...

The Impact Of The Global Crisis On Small And Medium Entrepreneurship In Croatia

We observe the behavior of entrepreneurs but also creditors in Croatia during the crisis, and show the poor compliance between measures of state intervention, through the possible results of such measures. The article deals with the current topic, the impact of the current global crisis on small and medium entrepreneurship in Croatia. Fiscal and monetary policies are not coordinated. The government and the central bank must create economic policies that will provide long-term economic growth. Government needs to radically reduce consumption and investments that do not directly affect economic growth and adjust the expenditures with the revenues. Balanced fiscal policy will not be enough. Government should capacitate itself for investments in capital equipment of the domestic industry and active management of these investments, as it is now done by all European governments. HNB should help with a larger money supply. The first way in which fiscal policy can intervene is the tax relieve of small and medium enterprises

montenegrin

 

Source: Montenegrin Journal of Economics

Joint with Miroslav Gregurek and Josip Grgić

Download Global Banking...

Global Banking and the Role of the Lender of the Last Resort

The paper analyses the role of the lender of last resort in a global economy. The crisis started in 2008 has shown that in global crisis the problem of banks is not only with liquidity, but also with the lack of capital. In order to fully understand the bank’s need for capital it is necessary to understand the process of globalization and development of modern economic movements. The paper starts with the model of closed economies which resembles the “island model”, in the second stage of the model the globalization is introduced and communication between the islands. The model created by the authors shows how globalization is not only limited to flow of goods, services and capital, but can also be seen as changes in the variables optimized by the participants in the economy.


ekonomija

 

Source: Ekonomija/Economics

Joint with Miroslav Gregurek

Download Nastanak vanjskog duga...

Ekonomska politika, meka budžetska ograničenja i nastanak vanjskog duga u RH

Pitanje vanjskoga duga već je duže vrijeme jedna od glavnih ekonomskih tema u RepubliciHrvatskoj, ovaj rad nastoji objasniti nastanak vanjskoga duga iz perspektive ekonomskih participanata. Autor kreira dinamički model ponašanja kućanstava, poduzeća i države nastojećiobjasniti njihovo ponašanje i odnos prema dugu. U modelu se također pridaje i veliki značaj očekivanjima ekonomskih participanta i ekonomskoj politici koja se provodi. Rad zaključuje da meko budžetsko ograničenje ekonomskih participanata i ekonomska politika koja se bazira na pogrešnim očekivanjima, ukoliko ne postoje adekvatne ekonomske politike, može odvasti k velikoj potrošnji, što uz slobodni protok kapitala uzrokuje vanjski dug.

libertas

 

Source:Libertas Business School Papers

Joint with Domagoj Vlahović

Download Uspon i pad...

Uspon i pad kreditiranja u Hrvatskoj

Poslovanje banaka u periodu od 2000. do 2008. godine karakterizirao je značajan rast kreditiranja stanovništva. Unutar same kompozicije kreditiranja stanovništva posebno je značajan rast potrošačkih kredita, koji nisu standardni predmet ekonomskoga istraživanja. Standardna interpretacija kreditiranja podrazumijeva jednakost u kojoj je S=I, štednja jednaka investicijama, ali s pojavom potrošačkoga kredita javlja se novi odnos, koji je S=K, odnosno štednja je jednaka kreditu. Ekonomska teorija obično ne istražuje sudionike u ekonomiji koji žive iznad svojih mogućnosti i koji imaju čudne vremenske preference. Osim nedostatka teoretskoga objašnjenja potrošačkoga kredita razdoblje od 2000. do 2008. godine obilježila je i stopa rasta kredita stanovništvu koja je bila iznad rasta nominalnoga BDP-a i rasta plaće, što jasno pokazuje da takav rast kredita nije bilo moguće dugoročno održati.


ekonomija

 

Source: Ekonomija/Economics

Download Application of the Mundell-Fleming...

Application of the Mundell-Fleming Model on a Small Open Economy

The object of this paper is to investigate the applicability of a Mundell-Fleming model. The model was developed in 1960s with the main intention of opening the standard closed economy Keynesian IS-LM model and adjusting the variables for the capital flows and other shocks that might result from capital flow. The paper develops the models into detail, contrasts the closed economy and open economy IS-LM model. The paper also extents the model for the application to the standard rational expectations theory. After developing the model, I apply the model to a small open economy. In this case, I chose Croatia. Small open economy in the middle of Europe.

libertas

 

Source:Ekonomija/Economics

Download Optimalna kontrola...

Ekonomska politika i optimalna kontrola - kritika

Rad opisuje proces modeliranja ekonomskih procesa upotrebljavajući optimalnu kontrolu kao matematičko i racionalna očekivanja kao teoretsko oruđe pri objašnjavanju ekonomskih procesa. Rad se fokusira na sam proces modeliranja i probleme s kojom se ekonomist susreće kada kreće u modeliranje ekonomskih procesa. Posebna pozornost se pridaje specifikaciji parametara kod modela.


ekonomija

 

Source: Ekonomija/Economics

Download Model ekonomije bez...

Model ekonomije bez bankarskog sustava

Svrha ovoga rada je stvoriti ekonomski model male otvorene ekonomije koja je okrenuta potrošnji. Ekonomija koju model stvara bavi se proizvodnjom i ima slobodan i neograničen protok kapitala. Model predstavlja malu otvorenu ekonomiju tako da se potrošnja ne mora financirati domaćom proizvodnjom nego se može i financirati stranim zaduženjem. Jedna od pretpostavki modela je da ekonomija nema svojih financijskih istitucije nego kada se kućanstva žele zadužitit moraju tražiti financiranje van svoje države. Model je okrenuti mikroekonomskim temeljima, ali su posljedice makroekonomske.

libertas

 

Source:Ekonomija/Economics

Joint with Iva Mesić

Download Radna snaga i perspektive...

Radna snaga i perspektive ekonomskoga oporavka u Republici Hrvatskoj

Rad nastoji sagledati stanje tržišna rada u Republici Hrvatskoj i kako tržište rada može sudjelovatiu ekonomskom oporavku. Tržište rada je sagledano iz perspektive trenutne zaposlenosti koja je podijeljena na sektor usluga i sektor roba. Ova podjela je upotrijebljena kao početna točka da bi se moglo analizirati prošlo kretanje na tržištu rada, ali i buduća kretanja koja bi mogla biti rezultat budućih mjera monetarne i fiskalne politike. Iz perspektive zaposlenosti rad zaključuje da je zaposlenost u sektoru usluga dosegnula svoj maksimum i da nije realno očekivati povećanje zaposlenosti u tome sektoru.


ekonomija

 

Source: Ekonomija/Economics

Download Teorija racionalnih očekivanja...

Teorija racionalnih očekivanja i izvoz

Ovaj rad nastoji napraviti kvantitativan model koji će moći poslužiti kao model s kojim se može upotrebljavati pri donošenju ekonomskih odluka. Centralna tema je izvoz i politika tečaja. Teoretska podloga rada se bazira na dinamičnome programiranju. Svjesni smo da odnosiu ekonomiji i stvarnome svijetu nisu linearni autor pokušava napraviti model koji je rekurzivan iu svojoj prirodi dinamičan. Posebna pozornost se pridaje šokovima s kojima se susreće ekonomija. Šokovi su podijeljeni u na nominalne (monetarne) i realne šokove.

libertas

 

Source:Ekonomija/Economics

Download Usklađenost monetarne...

Usklađenost monetarne i fiskalne politike u RH

Rad nastoji povezati utjecaj monetarne i fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj i pokazati koji im je međusobni odnos. Hrvatska od stabilizacijskoga programa 1994 godine nije imala klasične oscilacije poslovnih ciklusa, pa provođenje monetarne i fiskalne politike nikad nije bilo izloženo pritisku koji sobom nosi recesija. Zbog recesije u 2009 godini, o provođenju monetarne i fiskalne politike se počelo intenzivnije govoriti, jer se nametnulo pitanje da li će ekonomske politike reagirati anti-ciklički kao što je to uobičajeno.


rifin logo

 

Source: www.rifin.com

Joint with Miroslav Gregurek

Download Uzroci nastanka inflacije...

Uzroci nastanka inflacije u Hrvatskoj: uloga posrednika

Inflacija se obično doživljava kao makroekonomski problem u ekonomiji. Ovaj rad pokušava analiziratimikroekonomskim alatima tržište potrošnje. Rad analizira ulogu posrednika koji omogućuju potrošačima pristup robi široke potrošnje. Osobita pažnja se poklanja analizi posrednika i dilemu dali oni predstavljaju sami sa sebe monopol, oligopol ili slobodno tržište. Rad nalazi da veliki dio tržišta roba koje konzumiraju potrošači, u stvari ima monopolnu ili oligopolnu strukturu.

ekonomija

 

Source:Ekonomija/Economics

Download Teorija racioalnih očekivanja...

Teorija racionalnih očekivanja i mikroekonomija zaduženja

Ovaj rad istražuje odnos i interakciju između kućanstava i financijskih institucija. Rad postavlja rekurzivan model koji se bazira na teoriji racionalnih očekivanja i ekvilibriskih modela. Model razvija ponašanje kućanstava kroz vrijeme, zatim se razvija ponašanje financijskih institucija kroz vrijeme. Model dalje postavlja intertemporalnu interakciju između kućanstava i financijskih institucija. Matematičke metode koje se upotrebljavaju u modelu su rekurzivne metode koje se baziraju na matematici optimalne kontrole i racionalnih očekivanja. Pozornost se pridaje kreiranju očekivanja i kako se očekivanja razlikuju između kućanstava koja posjeduju nesavršenu informaciju i financijskih institucija koje posjeduju savršenu informaciju.